Barclays Outlook 2020

Welcome to “Outlook 2020”, our annual investment outlook update from Barclays Private Bank (which you can also download as a PDF).

It’s been a tumultuous year for financial markets in 2019, with geopolitical uncertainties heavily affecting sentiment. That said, the year has seen strong returns across major asset classes.

So what does 2020 have in store? Outlook 2020 shares our thoughts on likely key drivers of financial markets and appropriate investment strategies.

With Brexit unfinished and a US presidential election in November, 2020 is set to see geopolitical uncertainty climax. The end result of these two events will likely affect financial markets for the foreseeable future. While their outcome is highly unpredictable, the path to each should trigger renewed volatility.

Turning to the economy, elevated levels of uncertainty are likely to delay much investment, again, but the risks of a global recession are contained. Indeed, the private sector, and particularly households, still enjoys favourable conditions such as multi-decade lows in the unemployment rate.

Despite a further slowdown in Chinese growth, expansion in emerging markets should slightly accelerate overall, helped by a rebound in places like Brazil, Russia or Turkey.

While a recession should be averted, global growth remains fragile and valuations look stretched across all asset classes. With muted price returns likely, we prefer strategies providing yields to enhance total returns. And with uncertainty rising, tactical hedging and diversifying portfolios with private assets, market neutral strategies or gold seem appropriate.

Finally, with climate change rising up the political and corporate agenda, we examine the investment risks of climate change and how investors can respond to them. Indeed, with more fiscal spending on the cards, this is likely to be tilted, at least in part, to tackling this issue. In a year when uncertainty should reach new highs, climate change is a certainty that deserves all our attention.

Jean-Damien Marie and Andre Portelli
Co-heads of investments, Private Bank

For more information, click here.

Last local news

Evening Update Friday 30 July 2021

Demonstrations are expected across France tomorrow in protest against the Health Pass. Several thousand police officers are expected to be mobilised i... Evening Update Friday 30 July 2021 Read More

30/07/2021

Lunchtime News Friday July 30th 2021

UK Travel- British government Ministers have been heavily criticised for keeping France on the Amber+ travel list meaning that people who enter the co... Lunchtime News Friday July 30th 2021 Read More

30/07/2021

French and Riviera News Friday July 30th 2021

Infections-The government says that it is particularly concerned about rising COVID-19 infections in Mediterranean resorts.... French and Riviera News Friday July 30th 2021 Read More

30/07/2021

Evening Update Thursday 29 July 2021

Clement Beaune, the French Secretary of State for European Affairs, has said that changes to England's quarantine requirements are "discriminatory". ... Evening Update Thursday 29 July 2021 Read More

29/07/2021