Barclays Outlook 2020

Welcome to “Outlook 2020”, our annual investment outlook update from Barclays Private Bank (which you can also download as a PDF).

It’s been a tumultuous year for financial markets in 2019, with geopolitical uncertainties heavily affecting sentiment. That said, the year has seen strong returns across major asset classes.

So what does 2020 have in store? Outlook 2020 shares our thoughts on likely key drivers of financial markets and appropriate investment strategies.

With Brexit unfinished and a US presidential election in November, 2020 is set to see geopolitical uncertainty climax. The end result of these two events will likely affect financial markets for the foreseeable future. While their outcome is highly unpredictable, the path to each should trigger renewed volatility.

Turning to the economy, elevated levels of uncertainty are likely to delay much investment, again, but the risks of a global recession are contained. Indeed, the private sector, and particularly households, still enjoys favourable conditions such as multi-decade lows in the unemployment rate.

Despite a further slowdown in Chinese growth, expansion in emerging markets should slightly accelerate overall, helped by a rebound in places like Brazil, Russia or Turkey.

While a recession should be averted, global growth remains fragile and valuations look stretched across all asset classes. With muted price returns likely, we prefer strategies providing yields to enhance total returns. And with uncertainty rising, tactical hedging and diversifying portfolios with private assets, market neutral strategies or gold seem appropriate.

Finally, with climate change rising up the political and corporate agenda, we examine the investment risks of climate change and how investors can respond to them. Indeed, with more fiscal spending on the cards, this is likely to be tilted, at least in part, to tackling this issue. In a year when uncertainty should reach new highs, climate change is a certainty that deserves all our attention.

Jean-Damien Marie and Andre Portelli
Co-heads of investments, Private Bank

For more information, click here.

Last local news

Evening Update Thursday 7th August 2025

A major pile-up involving around ten vehicles, including a truck and a motorcycle, occurred early on the 7th of August in the Las Planas tunnel on the... Evening Update Thursday 7th August 2025 Read More

07/08/2025

Banque Havilland Monaco rebrands as Moncrief Private Bank after acquisition

Banque Havilland (Monaco) SAM will relaunch as Moncrief Private Bank (Monaco) SAM in late 2025, following its acquisition by an international investor... Banque Havilland Monaco rebrands as Moncrief Private Bank after acquisition Read More

07/08/2025

Monaco bans electric scooters and bikes for under-14s in major road safety shake-up

Monaco has introduced a new road safety law that bans children under 14 from using electric scooters or electric bikes on public roads. The change is ... Monaco bans electric scooters and bikes for under-14s in major road safety shake-up Read More

07/08/2025

Update on wildfire in France

A devastating wildfire in southern France has burned through more than 16,000 hectares of vegetation in the Aude region, an area larger than the city ... Update on wildfire in France Read More

07/08/2025

French and Riviera News Thursday 7th August 2025

A devastating wildfire in southern France has destroyed over 15,000 hectares, making it the country’s worst blaze since 1949. French Prime Minister Fr... French and Riviera News Thursday 7th August 2025 Read More

07/08/2025